大中城市居民出行强度的聚类分析

Cluster Analysis on the Trip Intensity of Residents in the Large and Medium Cities

人均出行次数是居民出行强度的最直接反映,而人均出行次数与城市经济指标有着极大联系。目前对人均出行次数和经济指标之间的关系缺乏定量分析研究,本文通过研究经济指标与居民人均出行次数的关系来建立居民人均出行次数量化模型。通过对全国十五个大中城市的经济指标进行聚类分析,找到与居民出行强度相关性最大的4个典型指标:市区土地面积、社会消费品零售总额、居民消费价格总指数、和市区居民人均可支配收入,建立了居民出行次数与这些典型指标的回归模型,为同类城市的居民人均出行次数的预测提供了参考。

The average number of resident trip is the most direct reflection of the intensity of resident trip, and there is a certain relation between average number of resident trip and the economic indexes. But now the quantitative analysis between average number of resident trip and economic indicators has not been developed. This paper constructed a resident trip model according to the studied relations between economic indexes and resident trip. Having done the cluster analysis on the economic indicators of fifteen large and medium cities, four typical indexes, including land areas, the total retail sales of consumer goods, the consuming price index of the inhabitants and the average disposable income of urban residents were found. Then, a regression model of resident trip was established. The model could provide a basis for the prediction of average number of resident trip in similar cities