考虑人口结构变化的城市客运机动车辆发展规模研究

Development Scale of Urban Passenger Traffic Vehicle Considering the Variety of Population Structure

随着我国社会老龄化程度加剧,这种社会群体年龄结构的变化会对整个社会交通需求产生一定影响。本文以我国人口发展和人口年龄结构变化为背景,引入人口发展预测模型,研究人口年龄结构变化对居民出行次数和出行方式的影响,进而根据这种人口发展所引发的交通需求变化,采用层次分析法预测未来年城市客运机动车辆发展规模,并结合实例(张家港市城区客运机动车辆发展规模预测)对该计算方法进行了验证。计算结果表明该方法是一种合理的计算方法。

With population aging quickly, the variation of age structure has a great impact on traffic demand of the whole society. In the context of the varieties of population development and age structure, a population development model was introduced to analyze the influence of age structure on the trips and travel mode. Then, based on the travel demand changes resulting from population development, the AHP （analytic hierarchy process） method was applied to forecast the scale of urban passenger traffic vehicle. Finally, an example （Development scale forecast of urban passenger vehicle of Zhangjiagang） was taken to validate the methodology and the computational result indicates that this means is reasonable.