基于盲数理论的湖泊总磷D-BM优化模型

The optimal model of D-BM for lake total phosphorus based on the blind theory

针对湖泊总磷负荷模型中各参数及总磷规划中排污量的不确定性,运用盲数理论,将Dillon模型、盲数模型和费用效益分析模型结合,建立了湖泊总磷规划D-BM优化模型.在总磷规划实例中,当3个近期治理方案的总磷目标浓度分别为0.30,0.20,0.15mg/L时,根据D-BM模型求出3个备选治理方案的费用效益指标分别为0.932、1.480和1.448.选择第2个备选方案为湖泊富营养化最佳治理方案.

Aimed at the uncertainty of each parameter in the lake total phosphorus loading model and the dirty discharge amount in the total phosphorus planning, utilizing blind theory to combine the Dillon model, blind model （BM） and cost-benefit analysis （CBA） model, the optimal model of D-BM of lake total phosphorus planning was established. When in the phosphorus planning example, the total phosphorus objective concentration of 3 short time treatment scheme were 0.30, 0.20, 0.15mg/L respectively, based on the D-BM model the cost-benefit indexes of 3 prepared for selection treatment scheme were 0.932, 1.480 and 1.448 respectively. The second prepared for selection scheme was the best treatment scheme.