赶不上定理及其循环经济理论意义

Can not catch up theorem and its theoretical significance for circular economy

阐释了在一个正常发展的长时期的宏观经济体系中人均物质消费量永远上升的观点,研究了人均GDP增长速度和物质利用强度变化速度之间的数量关系,根据二者变化速度相对快慢提出和证明了保证人均物质消费量上升的充分必要条件即赶不上定理.利用赶不上定理,论述了循环经济是解决人类经济增长的无限性与自然资源有限性之间的矛盾的根本途径,当人均GDP增长速度为零时进行结构调整必然降低人均物质消费量,引发社会不安定现象;当人均GDP增长速度足够快时,可以大幅度进行结构调整而不降低人均物质消费量.

A viewpoint of per capita material consumption will ever increase in a normally developed and long term macro-economy was explained. A quantitative relationship between per capita GDP growth speed and speed of change in intensity of use of material was studied. Based on the relative quickness of these two speeds, sufficient and necessary conditions guaranteeing a raise of per capita material consumption were proposed and proved, that is the can not catch up theorem. The theorem was used to expound that circular economy was the fundamental way to solve the contradiction between the unlimited human economic growth and the limited of natural resources. When the growth speed of per capita GDP is zero, restructuring will certainly lower the per capita material consumption, inducing social unstable phenomenon; when the growth speed of per capita GDP is fast enough, restructuring can be carded out at a large scale without lowering the per capita material consumption.