灰色组合模型在医院入院人数预测中的应用

Grey Combinatorial Model Used for Prophecy of In-patient Number in Hospitals

本文在灰色预测的基础上,组合残差回归预测建立灰色组合预测模型,对我国入院人数进行预测,提高了预测的精度。结果表明,未来几年,我国入院人数将在5000万左右波动,1995年、1996年为5016万、4981万。

On the basis of grey prophecy the grey-combinatorial prophetic model was established with combinatorial-residual regression. The model was used to give a prophecy of in-patient population of our country and the precision of prophecy was lifted. The results showed that the population would be about 50 million in the near future. 50.16 million for 1995 and 49.81 million for 1996 respectively.