“生态位”元胞自动机在土地可持续规划模型中的应用

Niche-based cellular automata for sustainable land use planning

快速城市化带来了一系列的环境生态问题。有必要把生态学的概念引进城市规划中,以减少城市发展带来的弊端。提出了基于“生态位”的元胞自动机(CA)的新模型,并将其应用在土地利用规划中。探讨了如何通过“生态位”元胞自动机和GIS的结合进行城市土地可持续利用的规划。该模型可方便地探索不同土地利用政策下城市土地利用发展情景,能够为城市规划提供有用的决策支持。旨在探索通过模拟的手段对城市土地利用进行合理的规划。将该模型应用于快速发展的广州市,并取得了较有意义的结果。

Rapid urbanization has brought about a series of ecological and environmental problems. Urban planning based on the concepts of ecology is useful for alleviating some of these problems. This paper proposes a new method by incorporating the ecological concept of ＂niche＂ in cellular automata （CA） for planning purposes, and illustrates its application to the simulation of sustainable land use. There have been many applications of CA for simulating urban development, yielding significant progresses in verifying urban theories and assumptions. However, many of them are limited to the simulation and prediction of urban development based on the ＂ business-as-usual＂ scenario that assumes further development to follow present patterns. There exists a general lack of CA application in urban planning. Land use planning is required to solve complex land use problems in implementing the initiatives of sustainable land use. Complex natural and social systems are the subject of many studies aimed at understanding their characteristic dynamics and functioning. Scenario analysis is a promising and interesting planning environment. In this study, the planning objectives related to sustainable model. It simulates alternative development patterns under different land tool for investigating future in such a complex development are embedded in this proposed CA use policies. Planning authorities can evaluate these options and choose the best option for implementing the initiative of sustainable development. This model thus provides a powerful exploratory tool for generating alternative development patterns. The novelty of this proposed mode is based on the incorporation of the concept of ecological ＂niche＂ in CA. Each cell in cellular automata is assigned with a distinct ecological ＂ niche＂, such as ＂ agriculture ecological niche＂, ＂ urban development ecological niche＂ and ＂sustainable development ecological niche＂. The ecological ＂niche＂ of each cell will have its own distinct ＂contribution＂ to the urban development according to the planning objectives These cells will compete each other according to a biological competition mechanism characterized by selection of the superior and elimination of the inferior for ecological ＂niche＂, assuming cells with higher potentials are more competitive. This competition mechanism will result in urban evolution. This paper presents a new method for simulating sustainable land use by the integration of ecological ＂niche＂, cellular automata and GIS. This ecological cellular automa＇ton can simulate urban development under different land use policies. It can be used to assist decision makers in searching for alternative land development so that land use conflicts can be minimized. This model has been applied to the simulation of development alternatives for a fast growing city, Guangzhou, South China, and produced promising results.