流域总量控制下的农业非点源污染控制方案及其风险分析——以杭埠-丰乐河流域为例

Agricultural Non-point Pollution Control Under Watershed Total Load Control and Risk Analysis of Control Scenarios-Practices on Watershed of Hangbu-Fengle River

以巢湖的最大入湖支流杭埠-丰乐河及其流域为研究区域,以国际较新流域管理模型WARMF(Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework)为研究工具,通过入河负荷、水质、水量的综合分析确定流域关键控制区,提出总量标准转换系数、结合功能区水质要求、计算河段的总量负荷标准。以分段计算总量标准取代总量分配,以负荷流失率和化肥流失率为基准进行非点源内部不同土地利用类型的削减分配,通过局部灵敏度分析和摩尔斯敏感判别因子筛选风险因子,尝试以个别关键区域的控制达到全流域的改善,并且以Jacknife模拟为风险分析方法对控制方案进行风险分析。

Non-point pollution is the focus of current researches. Attempts of watershed management under total load control through controlling of key sub-watersheds and risk analysis of control scenarios were carried out on watershed of Hangbu-Fengle river using WARMF model, which are meaningful for watershed management decision support and make a helpful try to following researches. Hangbu-Fengle river is the largest tributary of Chaohu lake, an eutrophied lake. Total load standard switch coefficient was advised to calculate total load standard. Total load standard within watershed was allocated by calculating total load standard of the river sections separately. By comparing regional loading from each type of land use with the standard regional loading, the overloading land use type that needed to be controlled was screened out. Fertilization reduction could be planed based on loss rate of fertilization, and adjustment of land use could be planed through circular method. The watershed management scenarios were designed from upstream to downstream. Partial sensitivity analysis was applied to study the sensitivity of main parameters of WARMF model and Morris qualitative screening technique was employed to choose the key parameters for risk analysis. Risk analysis of different management scenarios was carried out through Jackknife simulation.