船舶横摇非线性运动最大值预报

PREDICTION FOR EXTREME VALUES OF NONLINEAR SHIP ROLLING MOTION

横摇运动振幅渐近分布属于指数型分布，根据应用Markov过程理论得到的极值分布推导了最大值分布公式，同时提出了最大值预报方法。计算表明用此方法预报的最大值与实际统计的最大值非常接近，它比用线性理论预报的最大值误差要小，证明本文提出的最大值预报方法是可行的。

This paper discusses the prediction method for the extreme values of nonlinear ship rolling motion. According to the probability distribution function on the theory of Markov processes, the formula of predicting extreme values is obtained. It is found that the extreme values predicted by this method is very close to the statistic extreme values.