城市群双线客流分布预测方法研究

Predicting Passenger Flow in Urban Agglomeration by Two-way Trip Distribution Method

鉴于城市群客流预测在城市群轨道交通规划中的重要性,为提高其预测精度,对城市群客流预测中的分布预测方法进行研究。分析现实能够收集到的资料及城市群交通分布的特点,提出城市群双线分布预测方法。在城市群资料有限的情况下,研究如何得到城市群分布的预测结果;阐述分布预测的计算方法,建立相关的计算模型,对几种常用的分布预测模型进行优缺点及适用性分析。

Considering the importance of passenger flow prediction in urban agglomeration＇ s transportation planning and in order to enhance the accuracy of prediction, this article studied a trip distribution method for the passenger flow prediction and analyzed the information available and the characteristics of trip distribution in urban agglomeration. Proposing a two-way trip distribution prediction method, it studied how to obtain the results of the trip distribution prediction by utilizing the limited information, elaborated the computational method and established a computation model, The paper finally analyzes the virtues and defects and the applicability of several commonly used distribution prediction models.