基于GM(1,1)模型的中国能源消费预测研究

A Forecast of Gross Energy Consumption in China Based on GM(1,1) Model

以1985～2004年中国能源消费总量为原始数据，构建了中国能源消费GM（1，1）预测模型。研究表明，中国能源消费呈准指数增长规律，GM（1，1）预测模型对20年能源消费量的拟合精度达94．53％，模型的发展系数为0．04，适用于作中长期经济预测。预计“十一五”期间中国能源消费将以4．30％的速度增长，2010年能源消费量达到217730万t标准煤。

On the basis of the gross energy consumption in China from 1985 to 2004, the grey forecast medel for Chinese energy consumption is constructed. It is indicated that the increase of China energy consumption answered for exponential curve. According to the forecast model of GM （ 1, 1 ）, the fit precision of the past 20 years energy consumption to exponential function is as high as 94.53%, and the grow coefficient of grey forecast model is 0.04, which shows the model is suitable for medium or long term economic forecast. It is predicted that the energy consumption of China will grow in the rate of 4.30% per year from 2006 to 2010, and the energy consumption in 2010 will be an equivalent of 2,177,300,000 ton standard coal.