可信性方法在边坡施工期风险分析中的应用

Risk Analysis in the Construction Stage of Slop Engineering Based on Dependability Method

由于边坡工程事故资料的缺乏以及风险因素的不确定性、复杂性都增加了风险分析的难度,一般的风险分析方法不能较好地评估边坡工程风险,因此,通过工程实例将可信性方法引入边坡风险评估中。首先对边坡工程开挖期的主要风险事故发生概率和后果进行了分级,并采用基于权重的专家权重法进行评估,最后根据可信性风险分析理论得到边坡工程开挖期的总体风险,实例验证该方法切实可行。

Without corresponding accident data, uncertainty and complexity of risk factors made it difficult to do risk analysis of slop engineering. Therefore, the dependability method was presented with an engineering project; the probabilities of key accidents and consequences of slop engineering during construction were classified firstly. Meanwhile, weighted expert investigation method was used to evaluate the risk analysis of slop engineering. Eventually, the total risk of slop engineering during construction was obtained by the dependability method. Example showed that the method was advanced and practicable.