金枪鱼渔场分析预报模型及系统的开发

Development of tuna fishing grounds prediction model and system

以收集到的卫星遥感反演海表温度和金枪鱼历史捕捞产量资料为基础，统计建立了金枪鱼渔场的贝叶斯概率预报模型。以实现金枪鱼渔场预报为目标，采用控件式地理信息系统（GIS）技术，成功开发了大洋金枪鱼渔场的分析预报系统。对历史数据进行了模型回报试验，试验结果表明，金枪鱼渔场综合预报的准确性达到70％以上，渔场示范试验预报准确性也达到60％以上，对渔业捕捞生产具有一定的指导意义。

Based on the satellite data of SST supplied by NASA and the historical tuna catch data supplied by SPC, the rela tionship between the tuna and SST was studied and a Bayes prediction model of tuna fishing grounds was set up. It i shown by the results of the 40-years-hindcasting experiments that the predicting accuracy of tuna fishing grounds predic tion is over 70%, and the real forecasting accuracy is more than 60%, which is significant for fishmen operation guid alice.