河北邢台余震窗地震活动对华北地区6级以上地震的预测反应

Predicted Correspondence of Seismic Activity in Aftershock Window of 1966 Xingtai,Hebei,Earthquake to Earthquakes Larger Than M6 in the North China

文中简要介绍了1966年河北邢台地震发震的构造背景。在选取合理的地震参数确立余震窗后,分析了余震窗地震月频次的变化特征对研究华北地区6级以上地震的反应。发现,余震活动出现月频次过程异常对应华北地区6级地震成组活动或震群活动;单点高值频次异常则对应单发6级地震。

In this paper, the tectonic background where the 1966 Xingtai,Hebei, earthquake occurred is briefly reviewed. An aftershock window is set up, based on reasonable seismic parameter selection. The relation between variation characteristics of monthly frequency of earthquakes in aftershock window and earthquakes larger than M6 in the North China is analyzed. It is found that anomalies appeared in monthly frequency of aftershock activity usually correspond to groups of earthquakes of M6 or earthquake swarms, on the other hand, a single high frequency point usually corresponds to a single earthquake of M6.