粤闽交界地区地震形变前兆研究

STUDY ON PRECURSOR OF SEISMIC DEFORMATION IN CONTIGUOUS AREA OF GUANGDONG AND FUJIAN PROVINCE

采用形变速率、静压订正及固体潮调和分析等方法从多种形变资料中提取粤闽交界地区地震形变的中期前兆信息，并据此研究了形变异常的特征。最后，从形变机理、异常信息合成及信息可信度评估等方面讨论了该区地震形变前兆的可信度。认为该区震前形变速率及地壳物性等反常变化可视作地震形变的中期前兆，震兆异常具有准同步群体性、发展阶段性和空间分布密集性等异常时空分布特征，震兆可信度达０．

The medium term precursor information of seismic deformation is extracted using the methods of deformation rate, static atmosphere emendation, harmonic analysis of earth tide and so on from various deformation data in the contiguous area of Guangdong and Fujian province. On these grounds, the characteristics of abnormal deformation field are researched, the creditability of seismic deformation precursor is discussed from sides of deformation mechanism, abnormality information composition and the credible evaluation of information for the area.It thinks that the abnormal variances of the deformation rate and the crustal physics character in the area before earthquakes can be taken as the medium term precursors of seismic deformation, and the precursors possess the characteristics of time and space distribution with quasi synchronous grouping, developing by stages and dense space distribution. The creditability of seismic precursor arrives at 0.5 or over.