1995年7月12日孟连中缅边界7.3级地震短临预报及前兆异常特征——预报过程、思路及科研进展

MEDIUM-SHORT-IMPENDING PREDICTIONS AND PRECURSORY ANOMALY CHARACTERISTICS ON MENGLIAN M=7 3 EARTHQUAKE IN BORDER AREA BRTWEENVHINA AND BURMA ON JULY 12 OF 1995

论述了孟连７．３级地震的中、短、临三个阶段较成功预报的过程及所取得的减灾效益，同时较详细介绍了地球整体观的预报思路，提出孕震系统是一个开放的复杂巨系统，应将源、场及地球环境视为一个整体，各子系统内部和它们之间存在非线性的相互约束和反馈的观点。在预报研究进展方面阐述了建立多维预报指标、预报新方法的应用。

In this paper, more successful prediction process of medium-short-impending stages and disaster reduction effectiveness about Menglian M=7 3 earthquake are briefly described, meanwhile, the authors have introduced the prediction thinkings on earth whole view in detail, presented a view that the seismogenic system is an open complicated great system, should take source, field and environment factors as a whole, there exist unlinear mutual restriction and feedback within the various sub-systems or among them. In the research development of prediction, establishment of multi-dimension indicators, application of new prediction methods, swarm fluctuation model of unit stress level from macro-layer of seismogenic system have been discussed.