地震能量空间分布局域标度特性中短期预报方法及效能评价——实际震例的回顾性检验

MEDIUM-SHORT TERM PREDICTION METHOD BY THE LOCAL SCALING FEATURES OF SEISMIC ENERGY IN SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND JUDGMENT OF ITS PREDICTIVE EFFICACY ——REVIEWABLE TEST ON THE PRACTICAL EARTHQUAKE CASES

利用中国大陆丰富的地震记录，对表征地震能量空间分布局域标度特性的各参量〔１〕及其组合进行系统研究，提炼具有可操作性、能够用于日常地震监测预报的实用方法，特别着重于“异常”划分方式及划分标准的研究。这一划分方式及划分标准对不同地区或不同时段均是“动态”可变的，对所研究的１０个区域内发生的中强地震进行回顾性的预报检验，发现对于较短时期（０．５－１．５年），其最大预报评分的平均值介于０．３—０．６之间，明显高于随机应答的概率评分。

Using the seismic data in China Continent, parameters which express the local scaling features of seismic energy in spatial distribution have been studied systematically, in order to find out the practical method for earthquake monitoring and prediction. The major study is on the analyses of judging method and judging standard of anomaly, which should be dynamic for different region or different time period. Reviewable prediction tests on moderate-strong earthquakes in ten study areas showed that the average of maximum predicting mark distributes between 0.3 and 0.7 for a short predicting period (6-18 months) that is much greater than stochastic predicting mark, showing that comprehensive uses of mult-parameters have relatively strong predicting ability.