马尔柯夫链在预测江苏省恩格尔系数中的应用

Application of Markov Chain in Predicting the Engel's Coefficient of Jiangsu Province

把江苏省恩格尔系数的变化过程看成是一个马尔可夫链,并针对恩格尔系数的特点引入恩格尔系数增减率,利用其无后效性原理,建立一个数学模型对马尔可夫链的有关理论进行实证分析,从而说明恩格尔系数增减率变化过程确实具有马尔可夫性,并利用理论值进行预测分析,以供有关方面参考.

This text regards the change of Engel＇s coefficient in Jiangsu Province as a Markov chain and introduces the rate of increase and decrease of Engel＇s coefficient in view of its characteristics. Using its non-aftereffect property to set up a mathematical model and analyze the real example about the relevant theories of Markov chain, the author proves that the changes in the rate of increase and decrease are of a Markov nature. And the author proceeds to make predictions on the basis of theoretical value, which can serve as references for those concerned.