艾滋病疗法的评价及疗效的预测

The Assessment and Prediction of the AIDS Treatments

艾滋病迄今为止没有根治的疗法,依据美国艾滋病医疗试验机构ACTG公布的2组临床数据,建立了艾滋病疗法的评价及疗效的预测模型。模型基于CD4浓度的讨论,建立了CD4浓度与时刻之间的预测函数,能够预测继续治疗的效果,为进一步诊治提供相关依据。模型通过分析各年龄段病人分布的稠密程度,比较了临床主要采取的4种疗法的优劣,同时还基于医疗成本的考虑,探讨了采取诊疗实施方案的合理政策。该模型提供的方法扩展性好,可以适用其他疾病诊疗方案的评价。

So far there is no treatment experimental data, a forecast model for available for radical cure of AIDS. According to two groups of ACTG assessing and predicting AIDS＇ treatments is established. Based on the discussion of CD4 quantities, a predicting function between concentration and time can be found. It can help to predict the effect for further treatment and provide us with more evidence for further treatment. Patients in this model should be grouped by age, and the analysis on groups can give us a full comparison for four treatments; moreover, considering medical cost, the practical policy of AIDS＇ treatment is studied. This model can be widely spread in practical use, and it can be put into good use in other disease＇s assessment of medical treatment.