青海高原雪灾预警模型与GIS空间分析技术应用

Forecasting Model of Snow Calamity and GIS Application of Spacial Analysis Technology in Qinghai Plateau

利用GIS的空间分析技术,可以将分析对象的最小单元细化到具体的地理单元上,从而提高空间分析精度。雪灾分析中危险度函数的建立,可以实现雪灾的综合分层次预警评估。应用地理信息系统(GIS)和遥感(RS)技术,沿用前人研究的降水量与积雪深度关系成果,定义了青海高原雪灾畜牧业生产危险度函数和社会经济危险度函数,并建立了青海高原天气学雪灾预警模型和遥感雪灾预警模型,对青海高原雪灾进行分层预警,以期明确各地区雪灾发生的机理,提高雪灾预测精度,有针对性地提出减灾防灾措施。结果表明:该模型可以快速、准确地实现高原雪灾预警,在一定程度上提高了青海高原雪灾的预警能力。

In recent years, with the application of 3S technology in monitoring disaster field, utilizing the technology of GIS spacial analysis, the minimum unit of analytic target could become the concrete geographical unit. As a result, spacial analysis precision is improved. The foundation of the function of snow calamity fragility degrees can lead to the realization of integrated and stepwise forecasting, warning and assessment. GIS and RS technology are applied, and the result on relation between quantity of precipitation and depth of snow is used, then the functions are defined, which are the function of frangibility on livestock husbandry and function of frangibility on social economic level. The Forecasting Model of Snow Calamity on Meteorology and the Forecasting Model of Snow Calamity on Remote Sensing are established. Then, the snow calamity of the Plateau is forecasted step by step, in order to find out the mechanism of snow calamity in different areas, to improve the capability of forecasting snow calamity, and to give the way against the calamity. It is regarded that the mechanism of snow calamity in south Qinghai is different from that in areas around Qinghai Lake. Although snow is a factor causing snow calamity in every area, its effects are more severe in south Qinghai than in the areas around Qinghai Lake. Snow of similar degree may cause disaster, but it may also affect animal husbandry in areas around Qinghai Lake only slightly. Snow calamity is not the only nature disaster, the unreasonable activity of human beings also affect the occurrence and the development of snow calamity. At last, snow calamity which appears in Qinghai Plateau is forecasted using this model. Result shows the model can forecast snow calamity in the Plateau, and enhance forecasting ability of snow calamity in the Plateau.