我国商业银行个人住房贷款提前偿付模型的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Early Paying off Model of Residential Mortgage Loans in China’s Commercial Banks

在利率市场化过程中,尤其在当前利率上升预期存在的情况下,我国个人住房贷款借款人不会出于再融资动机提前偿付,而会频频发生出于节约利息支出动机的提前偿付,这种提前偿付会对银行利息收入发生重要影响,并干扰银行的利率风险管理。借鉴国外对银行贷款提前偿付的研究方法,根据我国银行的实际情况,本文采用时间序列方法模拟提前偿付率,作为我国银行个人住房贷款提前偿付模型实证研究的初步探索。

In the interest rate liberalization, the borrowers of the residential mortgage loan in China, with the expectation of rising interest rate, are motivated to pay off the loan early to save interests rather than to refinance. It is not only affecting banks’ interest income, but also disturb the interest rate management of commercial banks. According to the condition of our country, we can use the experience of foreign banks for reference. This paper applies the time series analysis method to simulate the rate of pay off residential mortgage loans; it is a pioneer exploration in establishing the early paying off model for Chinese commercial banks.