河西走廊夏季强沙尘暴数值模拟试验

Numerical Simulation of a Summer Severe Dust Storm Occurred in Hexi Corridor

影响我国的沙尘暴灾害性天气多发生在春季,很少在夏季发生。文章利用我国科学家自主研发的GRAPES-DAM沙尘气溶胶模式对2005年7月一次罕见的影响河西走廊地区的群发性强沙尘暴进行了数值模拟,对夏季小概率强沙尘暴灾害天气的可预报性进行了个例研究。试验结果表明:模式对此次过程的地面大风、沙尘暴的范围、移动等均能做出较好的模拟;对于夏季群发性强沙尘暴过程,基于数值预报方法的沙尘气溶胶模式在天气模式预报准确的条件下,可以对这种小概率事件做出有应用意义的预报结果。

Dust storms that impact China mostly happen in spring, seldom in summer. The dust aerosol model （GRAPES-DAM） is applied to simulate a group of dust severe storms occurred in Hexi Corridor in July 2005. By means of the case simulation and analysis, the feasibility of summer severe dust storm predictions is discussed. The simulation shows that the model can simulate successfully the dust storms, including the surface wind, the spreading area, and the movement of the dust storms. For summer clustering severe dust storms, in condition of exact numerical prediction of the synoptic pattern and meteorological fields, the dust aerosol model is able to make meaningful prediction of this kind of dust storms.