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恒生指数期货收盘价的预测分析 被引量:2

Prediction on the closing prices of HSI future
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摘要 本文针对中国证券市场沪深300指数期货即将试行的情况,用多元统计分析的多元回归分析方法,探讨影响恒生指数期货走势的相关因素,并在此基础上,提出恒生指数期货(以下简称恒指期货)的回归预测模型,据此可对恒指期货的收盘价进行预测,供管理层和投资者在实际操作中参考. In this paper, according to the situation of immediate issuing of Hushen 300 index future in Chinese stock market, multivariate linear regression analysis is contributed to discuss the factors influencing the trend of HSI future. Besides, the paper proposes the regression forecasting model which can be used by administrators and investors as reference in predicting the closing prices of HSI futures.
出处 《数学理论与应用》 2007年第2期88-91,共4页 Mathematical Theory and Applications
关键词 恒生指数期货 多元线性回归 相关分析 预测 HSI future Multivariate linear regression Correlation analysis Forecasting
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同被引文献11

  • 1刘轶芳,迟国泰,余方平,孙韶红,王玉刚.基于GARCH-EWMA的期货价格预测模型[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2006,38(9):1572-1575. 被引量:24
  • 2高惠璇.使用统计方法与sas系统[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2006:67.
  • 3Fan Jiangqing, Li Runze. Variable selection via nonconcave penalized likelihood and its oracle properties [J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2001,96 : 1349.
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  • 6Gene H Golub, Michael Heath, Grace Wahba. Generalized cross: validation as a method for choosing a good ridge parameter[J]. Technomet tics, ] 9 7 9,21 : 215.
  • 7Angela Reechia, Ernst Wit, Alessio Pollice. LASSO estimators in linear regression for microarray data[J]. A Recchia, E Wit, A Pollice-stat. unipg, it,2000,34: 1601.
  • 8Bradley Efron, Trevor Hastie, lain Johnstone, et al. Least Angle Regression[J]. The Annals of Statistics, 2004,32:407.
  • 9朱杰.期货价格预测——反向传播神经网络模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2000,30(4):416-419. 被引量:10
  • 10华仁海,仲伟俊.我国期货市场期货价格收益、交易量、波动性关系的动态分析[J].统计研究,2003,20(7):25-30. 被引量:79

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