应用引力模型评判海峡两岸贸易流量和潜力

Trade Flow and Potential across the Taiwan Straits Judged from the Perspective of Gravity Model

运用扩展后的贸易引力模型检验了祖国大陆和台湾地区之间的贸易流量和流向,并以此为依据具体考量了内地各省市与台湾地区的贸易联系程度。结果显示:内地各省市的经济规模和人均收入水平、空间距离、台商投资和特殊的经济协作关系是决定内地各省市与台湾地区贸易流量的主要因素。应积极强化有利因素,弱化不利因素来挖掘海峡两岸的贸易潜力。

This paper uses the expanded trade gravity model to test the decision of trade flow and flow direction between Chinese mainland and Taiwan Region, and on the basis, makes a concrete analysis of the trade contact degree between every inland province or city and Taiwan Region.The results show that economy scale,average per capita income,space distance,Taiwan Residents investment and peculiar economic cooperation relationship in every inland province or city are the major factors to determine the trade volume between every inland province or city and Taiwan Region.h is suggested to strengthen the advantageous factors,and to reduce the disadvantageous factors in order to actively excavate the trade potential across the Taiwan Streets.