基于技术进步和信息不对称的证据合成研究

Study of evidence combination based on technology progress and information asymmetry

证据理论著名的Dempster-Shafer合成公式忽视了证据信息源的主观差异性,导致其在应用中存在一些不合理性.本文初步研究了不同专家意见在决策中的分配、组合问题,提出了基于技术进步和信息不对称的动态证据合成规则,在设立专家权威系数和时间序列信度分配函数的基础上实现了新的合成法则.实例分析表明,新的合成公式比较符合直观和常理,并较好地解决了冲突证据的合成问题.

The famous Dempster-Shafer formula of evidence theory ignored the great difference among information source of evidence, which resulted in some irrationality in its application. This paper has a preliminary study of the assignment and the combination of different experts in decision making. In this paper, a dynamic evidence combination formula based on technology progress and information asymmaetry is proposed. This paper gives the weighted combination formula by constructing the authority coefficient and the time-series belief function. Examples show that the new combination formula is rational and feasible. It can also solve the combination of the different conflicting evidence.