基于DCF/Options矩阵评价模型的投资项目可行性分析

Investment feasibility research based on the DCF/Options matrix-analysis model

在进行项目投资时,企业往往面临投资的不可逆性,未来回报的不确定性,投资的杠杆效应和延迟性。在使用传统的分析方法对项目可行性进行评价时,往往会造成项目评价的片面性。主要分析了传统方法的缺点和决策者风险偏好对净现值评价方法的影响,并将实物期权理论引入项目决策,最后将DCF与Options 2种分析方法结合,构建一种新的项目评价方法——矩阵分析法,从而为决策的制定提供更为准确的信息。

When enterprises invest in a project,they often face the irreversability,the redound uncertainty, the leverage effect and delay effect of the investment. However, it is often frustrated by dogmatic reliance on traditional approaches to financial evaluation. We mainly analyzed the shortcomings and the risk-bias of the managers when the traditional methods are used, and then used the real-options to evaluate the feasibility of the investment. At last,we combined the two methods and created a new method which is the matrix method to evaluate the feasibility of the investment.