“广场协议”后的美元/日元汇率与美日双边贸易失衡

Exchange Rate of Dollar/Yen And Trade Unbalance of U.S-Japan after "Plaza Accord"

1985年"广场协议"的最主要目标是通过美元对全球主要货币特别是对日元的贬值来缩减美国的贸易逆差。然而,对1985-2006年美元/日元汇率、美日双边贸易差额等数据进行的分析说明,美元/日元汇率变动对美日双边贸易收支变动没有解释能力,美元对日元的贬值没有解决美日之间的贸易失衡问题。我们有理由相信,人民币对美元的升值也同样不能解决当代美中之间的贸易失衡问题。

The ＂Plaza accord＂ in 1985 targets at curtailing the U.S. trade deficit by depreciating the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, especially to the Japanese Yen, During the period of 1985-2006, however, the dollar/yen exchange rates have no explanatory power for the change of the U.S.-Japan bilateral trade balance, indicating that the depreciation failed to improve the U.S.-Japan trade deficit. We therefore argue that the appreciation of RMB has little effect on narrowing the Sino-American trade imbalance.