中国货币错配引致原因的实证分析:1986～2005

An Empirical Analysis on the Reason of China's Currency Mismatch from 1986 to 2005

货币错配是发展中国家普遍存在的一种经济金融现象,研究这一现象对我国汇率制度改革和金融深化过程中经济金融政策的制订具有重要的意义。文章首先简单介绍了国外对货币错配引致原因的最新研究成果,在此基础上对1986年至2005年间我国货币错配的引致原因进行了实证检验,实证结果表明,国家的经济规模、金融市场的发展水平和实际有效汇率的变动等因素对我国的货币错配程度有着显著的影响,最后结合我国货币错配现象的特点对以上因素的影响机制进行了分析。

Currency mismatch is a phenomenon that exists in emerging market ubiquitously. It is of significance to study this phenomenon on the formulation of financial policy during the process of reforming the exchange rate system and deepening finance system in China. Firstly, we introduce the preceding theories on the reason of the currency mismatch. Secondly, we take an empirical test on the reason of China＇s currency mismatch. The result indicate the size of country＇s economy, the level of the financial market, real effective exchange rate and so on are significantly correlated with the degree of the China＇s currency mismatch. Lastly, we analyze the mechanism of influence between these factors and currency mismatch.