苏州市耕地资源变化与经济发展关系研究

Study on the Relation between Cultivated Land and Economic Development in Suzhou

以苏州市1978-2005年的统计资料和近10年来土地详查与变更数据为依据,分析了苏州市耕地数量变化的动态过程及其空间差异,选取人均GDP、耕地面积作为指标分析了经济增长和耕地面积减少之间的关系,并对不同经济发展水平的耕地占用量进行估算。结果表明：自改革开放以来,苏州市耕地数量呈明显的波动减少趋势,耕地变化的区域差异显著;苏州市占用的耕地面积随着经济发展水平的增加呈指数型递减趋势,但当经济发展到一定阶段后,伴随技术进步和产业结构升级,经济增长对耕地压力将趋于缓和。

According to statistical data in 1978 - 2005, in the paper the dynamic change of quantitative and regional difference of cultivated land in Suzhou were analyzed. The relation analysis between cuhivated land change and economic development was conducted.The lost area of cultivated land at different economic development levels was estimated with the index relevant relational expressions of the area change of cultivated land and GDP per capita.The resuhs showed that general trend of cultivated land was decreasing and the regional differences of cultivated land was very notable. The area of cultivated land had an exponential decreasing trend with the increase of GDP per capita, and the reason was after economic development reached certain level, the growth of GDP mainly depended on the technological innovation and highly industrilization,no longer relied on the consumption of the cultivated land.