开都河源区气候变化及径流响应

Climate Change and Its Effects on Runoff at the Headwater of Kaidu River

应用巴音布鲁克水文站和气象站1960—2005年的观测资料,分析了开都河流域源区气温和降水的变化特征以及径流对气候变化的响应.结果表明:近46 a来开都河源区气温总体呈上升趋势,而降水量年际波动较大,降水量自1989年以来增加显著,降水和气温是开都河源区径流量变化的主要影响因素.年降水量与年径流量的单相关系数最大,为0.73;年平均气温与年径流量的相关系数为0.36.在降水量不变的情况下,径流量随气温升高而减少;在气温不变的情况下,径流量随降水量的增加而增加;而在降水量和气温都增加的情况下,径流量将有所增加.

Based on the data observed of Bayanbulak Hydrological Station and Bayanbulak Meteorological Station from 1960 to 2005, the characteristics of climate change and the response of runoff to climate change at headwater of Kaidu River have been analyzed. It is found that the mean annual temperature is rising, and annual precipitation has different obvious difference. The observed records at Bayanbulak Meteorological Station indicate that precipitation have been increasing obviously since 1989. Precipitation and temperature are the main factors which resulted in runoff changing. The correlation coefficient of annual precipitation and runoff is the largest, is 0.73. The correlation coefficient between the mean annual temperature and runoff is 0.36. When precipitation is in the same circumstances, the runoff is decreasing with temperature rising; when temperature is in the same circumstances, the runoff is increasing with precipitation increasing; but the runoff will be increased when both precipitation and temperature are increasing.