地震安全性评价中时程的包线与设定地震

Envelope Functions of Time Histories in Seismic Safety Evaluation and Scenario Earthquakes

"设定地震"概念的提出已有一段时间,但鲜见在我国地震安全性评价中应用。同时,概率方法在地震危险性评价中,由于时程包线函数的确定源于震级-距离组合的不确定性而带有较大的任意性。本文建议在考虑潜源概率贡献的基础上,引入设定地震的期望震级和期望距离组合,用以控制包线函数。通过修改危险性分析椭圆模型的软件,可以进行计算并给出了算例。

It has been a period of time that the concept of scenario earthquake was proposed, but this concept is rarely used in seismic safety evaluation in China since then. Meanwhile, because of the uncertainties of magnitudes-distances pairs, there is large arbitrariness while determining envelope function of time histories in seismic hazard analysis. In this paper, we describe a method to control the envelope functions of the time histories by introducing the most-likely combinations of magnitude and distance of the scenario earthquakes based on probabilistic method, revise the software of the ellipse model for seismic hazard analysis, and give a computation example.