我国货币政策中介目标研究——一个文献综述

The Research of Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy in China: A Literature Review

近年来,一些西方发达国家相继放弃了货币供应量目标,转向了利率、通货膨胀等目标,进而在我国也引发了货币供应量能否继续充当货币政策中介目标的争论。本文认为,尽管大多数实证研究均已表明货币供应量作为中介目标的有效性正不断降低,然而从我国当前的经济金融发展情况来看,选择利率或通货膨胀目标还缺乏可行性。因此,我国面临的现实选择只能是继续以货币供应量为目标,同时稳步推进金融体系、金融制度的改革,为中介目标的转变奠定基础。

Over recent years, some developed countries have substituted interest rate target or inflation target for money supply target, which brings the debate that if money supply can be taken as intermediate target of monetary policy in China as before. This paper has systematically reviewed these debate papers, and pointed out that most empirical research indicated that the validity of money supply target is decreasing. However, considering the economy and finance development condition of China, it lacks feasibility of taking interest rate or inflation as intermediate target. So the possible choice for China is to continue taking money supply as intermediate target, at the same time, to reform finance system and institution steadily so as to provide foundation for the changing of intermediate target.