预期寿命损失法定量评估区域环境健康风险

A Specific Method of Quantitative Assessing the Environment Health Risk:Loss of Life Expectancy

预期寿命损失(Loss of life expectancy)是一种将环境污染导致的致癌风险和非致癌风险进行归一化评价的环境健康风险评价技术,有无暴露条件下的各年龄段人口的预期剩余寿命之差即为该暴露条件下的预期寿命损失。应用预期寿命损失法对杭州地区在一定致癌风险下的预期剩余寿命及预期寿命损失当量进行了分析,并对预期寿命损失进行了人群差异性研究。结果表明,在单位致癌风险(10-5)的污染暴露下,杭州地区男性和女性在0岁时的预期剩余寿命分别为79.4和83.2a;预期寿命损失当量分别为50.6和51.7min;不同年龄段上的过剩死亡量的分布呈正态分布,女性在84岁左右达到峰值,男性在80岁左右达到峰值;50岁之后人群预期寿命损失随年龄的增大而下降,说明环境因素不是老龄化人群死亡的主要原因;杭州市近10年的预期寿命损失呈增加趋势。

Loss of life expectancy （LLE） was being proposed as a new method to quantitative assessing the environmental health risk, which could evaluate and compare the health risk caused by carcinogen and non-carcinogen pollutants in a unity metric. It can be evaluated by the difference of life expectancy exposed to certain pollutants for individuals or not in life table, and thus to measure the magnitude of toxic effects. Based on the statistical data of individual population in Hangzhou, the life expectancy and the loss of life expectancy intensity under the unit cancer risk （10^-5） were calculated, the differentia in ages was studied as well. The results showed that the life expectancy was 79.4 year and 83.2 year for male and female respectively at zero year old. And 50.6 min and 51.7 min of loss of life expectancy were found for male and female respectively. The distribution of over death at special years old followed the normal-distribution, which would go up to a peak at 84 years old for female and 80 years old for male respectively. Environment pollutant was not a key factor for death since the loss of life expectancy decreased with the increasing age after 50. The loss of life expectancy in Hangzhou in last decade increased recently.