贵州农业经济波动分析

Analysis of fluctuation of agricultural economy in Guizhou province

运用C-D生产函数和波动的一致性和相关性分析方法对贵州农业波动的特征和成因进行分析,结果表明,贵州农业波动频繁而剧烈,改革开放以来,发生了2次中期波动,目前有望进入第3个中波的回升期;当前,畜牧业已成为贵州农业增长和波动最重要的构成因素;贵州农业波动的直接影响因素主要是资本投入,其次是科技进步、政策和自然灾害的影响显著,劳动力数量投入的影响不显著;农村居民收入、农业贷款、市场价格和农业基建投资是贵州农业波动很重要的间接影响因素,其中,农村居民收入和农业贷款对贵州农业波动的影响大于市场价格和农业基建投资。

Analysis has been made on characteristic and origin of the fluctuation of agricultural economy in Guizhou with the theories and methods such as economical cycle, comparative analysis, C - D production function, uniformity and correlation analysis. The results show that the fluctuation of agricultural economy in Guizhou is frequent and acute, there are two medium waves in Guizhou agriculture since reform,it has the phase of recovery; currently animal husbandry is the most important ingredient; the origin of Guizhou＇ agricultural fluctuation is mainly capital, secondly is the progress of science and technology, the effects of policy and disaster are remarkable;the effect of labor is not evident;the annual net income of rural households, agriculture loan and market price are very important factors of short-term fluctuation.