金融经济周期理论及启示

The Financial Business Cycle Theory and Implication

以经济周期传导机制为主线,介绍了金融经济周期理论的发展脉络、核心内容、优势与局限及政策含义。在金融市场自由化和全球化背景下,以金融为核心的虚拟经济周期波动更加显著。传统周期理论无法解释短期内经济剧烈波动并跨国扩散的现象,金融经济周期理论从借贷双方的委托—代理问题切入研究金融加速器效应。金融摩擦是影响冲击传导的重要因素,“银行信贷渠道”和“资产负债表渠道”是金融加速器的主要形成机制,经济剧烈波动是加速器效应的具体表现,而传统的宏观调控政策掩盖了金融市场的潜在风险。

With the transmission mechanism of business cycle as the main clue, introduction is made to the development, core context, advantages and limits,and policy implication of the financial business cycle theory. Under the background of liberalization and globalization in the financial market, the virtual business cycle becomes more significant. However, the traditional business cycle theory cannot explain why the short-term economy fluctuates more intensely and disperses cross countries. The financial business cycle theory studies the financial accelerator effect from the principal-agent relations between creditor and borrower. The financial friction is the fundamental factor which affects the transmission of impacts. The ＂bank credit channel＂ and ＂balance sheet channel＂ are the main resources that form the financial accelerator. The fact that the short-term economy fluctuates intensely is the sequence of the accelerator effect, and the traditional macro-policies hide the potential risks in the financial market.