引入三参数区间数的组合预测方法研究

Study on Combined Predictive Methods with Three Parameters Interval Numbers

组合预测的关键是权系数的确定。在经济预测中常用的统计预测模型法、趋势分析法、Box-Jenkins时间序列法以及灰色预测法、BP神经网络模型方法的单一预测基础上,采用三参数区间数确定组合预测模型权重,建立组合预测模型,可望得到接近现实的结果。

A key issue for combined predication is to determine the weight coefficient.Based on statistical predicative methods commonly used in economic analysis such as Statistical Forecast Method,Trend Analysis Method and Box-Jenkins Time Series Method,as well as Gray Forecasting Method and BP artificial neural network method,the author suggests the application of three parameters interval numbers in determination of the weight coefficient and creation of combined predictive methods to obtain better predictive results.