特大型工程项目评价的现代思维

The Modern Thought of Project Evaluation on Outsize Engineering

NPV法作为工程项目评价的方法已被越来越多决策者所质疑,特别对于具有极其复杂的社会内涵价值的特大型工程项目,用NPV法来评价时存在诸多缺陷。为弥补传统评价方法的不足,也为提高特大型工程项目评价质量,一种更加贴近现实环境的工程项目评价方法亟待建立。文章以期权博弈理论为基石,结合风险规避和互动公平理论对工程项目进行评价,并在此基础上提出面对特大型工程项目评价的互动评价原则。

The estimate of a project＇s valuation based on the calculation from ＂ NET PRESENT VALUE＂ has brought a dispute to decision makers nowadays, as the use of NPV has limited the accuracy from actual practice, especially towards outsize projects. To minimize the discrepancy from traditional method of valuation, and to improve the assessment accuracy on outsize projects, a method which closer to actual practice is asked for setting up. This paper analyzes the use of option as a basic tool combining with risk aversion and fairness equilibrium to valuate the outsize projects. At the same time, this paper gives a mutual valuation principle for outsize projects.