农村剩余劳动力迁移动因的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of the Rural Residual Labor Forces' Migration in China

我国农村的剩余劳动力数量庞大,如何顺利转移是当前的一个重要课题。改革开放后,大批农村劳动力涌入城市,珠三角地区一度形成令人担忧的“民工潮”,但2005年开始又出现民工短缺现象,其原因引人深思。将农民作为市场经济的理性主体,利用第五次人口普查的数据,使用线性化的logit模型,对影响农村劳动力跨省迁移的概率和流向等因素进行实证分析。结果表明,迁出地的人均耕地、劳动者受教育状况、农业劳动生产率、城镇居民收入、以及两地距离等对农村劳动力的跨省迁移具有显著影响。

There is a great amount of labor surplus in Chinese rural areas. The transfer of them is now a great challenge. In 2005, shortage of rural labor supply existed all over the Pearl River Delta, which used to be the main destination of rural labors＇ migration, and elsewhere. What are the main internal and external reasons for the situation？ This paper, focusing on the trans-regional migration, tries to make a preliminary exploration on that. Based on the presumption of self- interested person, the paper employs an econometric method of linear logit model to carry on the analysis. A principle source of data is the fifth national census in 2000. The analysis shows that factors like cultivated land per capita, education, productivity of agriculture, distance, etc. have notable influence on the trans - regional migration of surplus labor in rural areas.