摘要
运用简单的动力学方程，考察了旋转运动和辐合运动的初值问题，由此探讨了天气系统（尤其是涡旋系统）运动的可预报时限。对于天气尺度系统，确定性可预报时限约２～５天；对于１０７ｍ量级天气系统，可预报时限约１０多天；对于中小尺度天气系统，可预报时限约１天。其结果同Ｓｍａｇｏｒｉｎｓｋｙ等、Ｆｒａｅｄｒｉｃｈ等的结论基本一致。讨论还发现，在不同外部参数条件下。
Applying the simple equation of dynamics to the study of the initial value of rotation and convergence motion,the time limit of the predictability of the synoptic system,especially that of the eddy system is discussed.As for weather scale system,the definite time limit of the predictability is about 2～5 days;while for 10 7m weather system,more than 10 days and for 10 5～10 4m system,about 1 day.The results almost coincide with those of Smagorinsky and Fraedrich.It is also found that,the predictability of the eddy motion varies with the external conditions.
