中国南部沿海地区雨涝灾害时空特征及趋势预测

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL FEATURES AND TREND PREDICTION OF WATERLOGGING DISASTARS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHERN OF CHINA

根据插补完整的近５００年旱涝等级序列和近４０年实测降水资料，分别制定了历史时期和观测时期雨涝分级标准。建立了五省一市１８个站的雨涝序列。在此基础上，探讨了中国南部沿海地区雨涝分布时空特征，并对典型雨涝年的成因及灾情进行了分析和评估，最后作出９０年代雨涝趋势预测，为沿海的减灾。

According to the data of grade series of drought and rainy waterlogging for 500 years and practical precipitation in recent 40 years,this paper set down the standards of waterlogging grade for historical and observational periods,and set up waterlogging series for 18 stations in five provinces and one city separately.Upon the base,the temporal and spatial features of waterlogging distribution along the inshore area in south China are approached,and the disaster genesis and intensity for the typical waterlogging year are analysed and assessed.Finally,the trend of rainy waterlogging in 1990's is predicted,which will provide a scientific base for decreasing and preventing disasters in the areas along the sea coast.