股票市场与中国经济增长关系研究——基于资金供给角度的实证分析

A study of relation between stock market and economic growth in China

资本市场作为现代金融体系的重要组成部分,股票市场占其主导地位,它为一国的经济增长提供直接融资。股票市场与我国经济增长的关系是我国经济发展过程中受到普遍关注的问题。本文从股票市场为经济增长提供资金供给的角度出发,通过单位跟检验、协整分析、误差修正模型对股票筹资额与GDP两个时间序列进行实证分析。本文研究认为,从长期来看,股票市场发展与中国经济增长存在着稳定的均衡关系,而短期内股票市场的经济增长效应较为微弱,并认为这与当前我国股票市场发展过程中存在的一些问题从而未能及时有效的指导投资者理性投资有关。因此,合理的做法是规范健全股票市场、加强宏观调控以促进股票市场的经济增长效应。

The capital market is now regarded as an important part of modem financial system. The stock market takes a leading position in it and supplies the direct capital for a country＇s economic growth. The relation between stock market and economic growth in China is paid great attention in the course of economic development. This paper makes an empirical analysis from the view that the stock market supplies capital for a country＇s economic growth, on the relation between two series： summary of raising capital for stock market and GDP, based on unit root test, cointegration and error correction model. The paper draws conclusions that in the long run, there is a stable equilibrium between stock market and economic growth in China, which is weak in the short term, however. The paper points out that this may result from the fact that there are some problems in Chinese stock market, so the investment can＇ t be activated immediately. Therefore, the reasonable measures are regulating and perfecting stock market, as well as strengthening macroregulation to promote the effect of stock market on economic growth.