基于灰色模型的成都双流机场物流预测

Forecast of Logistics of Chengdu Shuangliu Airport Based on Gray-Model

准确进行机场物流预测是机场规划的重要前提.但从目前机场物流的预测现状看,许多机场都存在预测值高于实际值的情况.文中在分析现有机场物流预测模型不足的基础上,利用灰色系统理论,建立了成都双流机场货、邮吞吐量的预测模型.通过实际数据与预测结果的比较,证明灰色模型对于双流机场货、邮吞吐量的预测具备可行性,同时具有较高的精度.

Accurate prediction of airport logistics is the basis for the layout of airport, while the values of prediction is always higher than the actual ones. On the basis of analyzing the deficiency of airport logistics prediction with the existing method, by using gray-system theory, a model is established to predicate throughput of Shuangliu airport. With a comparison of the actual data to the result of prediction,it is proved that using gray system theory to predict passenger throughput of Shuangliu airport is workable ,with rather high precision.