热带气旋生成的预报现状与船舶实用监测信息

Present Situation of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Predictionand Its Monitoring Information on Internet

介绍了目前对热带气旋发生及发展研究的最新理论及预报业务,指出目前热带气旋发生、发展的预报水平与实际需求仍有很大距离。推荐了美国为弥补热带气旋的发生、发展预报的不足而采取的对热带气旋的胚胎——热带扰动和热带低压进行监测的编号情况和方法。同时,根据几年来对上述情况的跟踪和分析,提供了几个较为实用的,可以及时了解全球热带扰动和热带低压最新发展动态的网站。所提供的理论动态和信息,可使船舶驾驶员和船舶安全管理人员了解目前国内外热带气旋发生、发展的研究和预报现状,在日常工作中及时了解热带气旋初生和发展的动态,最大程度地降低新生热带气旋对在热带气旋活动海区航行船舶的威胁,以达到保障航运企业安全生产的目的。

The up-to-date theory of TC occurrence and development and the present situation of daily forecast service are introduced in this paper, it is also pointed out that the prediction level of TC still can not meet the requirements in practice. A detailed description of the method of numbering and monitoring tropical disturbances and tropical depressions used by US Navy is given, some websites that can give the latest situation of TC occurrence and development are provided. The recent theoretical dynamic situation and information about TC predication given in the paper will help marine officers and ship safety managers to understand the present state of TC occurrence research and predication so as to know the live situation of TC occurrence and development in daily work for the safety of ships in TC active sea areas.