福建台风灾害风险分布的初步估计

Preliminary estimation of risk distribution of typhoon disaster in Fujian

建议了一个较简单的台风灾害风险评价模型,对福建台风灾害危险性、脆弱性和风险进行评价,应用Mapinfo7.0软件,编制了福建台风灾害风险分布图。结果表明:致灾因子危险性高值区主要分布在东部沿海,这一地区应该采取预留高风险区,与"台风灾害风险"共存的对策,提高台风预报准确性;承灾体脆弱性高值区集中分布在东部沿海的厦门、泉州、福州、莆田和漳州等地,还零散分布在三明、龙岩等地级市,这些地区应该采取生态安全条件下的土地利用结构调整、提高防御台风灾害能力和人口素质等对策,以降低承灾体脆弱性;风险高值区位于闽南沿海的漳州、长泰、龙海和厦门市,闽中的泉州东南沿海、莆田市和福州东南沿海,这些地区应该成为福建省防御台风灾害的重点区域。

According to the preliminary typhoon risk assessment model suggested in this paper, typhoon＇s hazard, vulnerability and risk are assessed, and maps of typhoon risk distribution are compiled. The results show that regions with high-value of hazard mainly distribute at the eastern coast, so the district of high hazard typhoon disaster system which coexists with＂ typhoon disaster risk＂ should be obligated in advance, which would improve the precise of typhoon forecast. Regions with high-value vulnerability of hazard-affected body mainly distributes at cities along the eastern coast, such as Xiamen, Quanzhou, Fuzhou, Putian and Zhangzhou, Sanming, Longyan was also scattered. It is necessary to adjust land use structure under the condition of ecological security, and improve the ability to defense typhoon and population＇s quality to reduce the vulnerability of hazard-affected body. Regions with highvalue of risk are centralized in the east seaboard, such as Zhangzhou, Changtai, Longhai and Xiamen, and in the middle of Fujian such as Quanzhou, Fuzhou and Putian, where should be considered as the important district of typhoon disaster prevention.