深圳市新一代暴雨强度公式的研制

Research on a new-generation of rainstorm intensity formula for Shenzhen City

首先构造了深圳市新一代暴雨强度公式研制的路线图,重点是利用深圳市气象局1954-2003年50年间的暴雨记录,用指数分布和P-Ⅲ分布进行分布曲线拟合和选优,得到了理论上的雨强-历时-重现期三联表,在此基础上再分别采用最优法、二分搜索法和广义逆法等3种方法求解分公式和总公式参数,根据误差最小的原则确定最优方法。结果表明:由指数分布拟合分布曲线,经过上述步骤求解得到的公式参数,误差最小,符合相关国标要求。

Using the data on rainstorm during 1954 -2003 from Shenyhen Meteorological Bureau, fitting and optimization of distribution curve were carried out with exponential distribution and P-Ⅲ distribution, and a theoretical rain intensity-duration-return period table was obtained. Based on this, the parameters of sab-formula and general formula were solved through optimized searching method, golden section method and generalized matrix inversion method respectively, and the best method was determined according to minimum error principle. The result indicates that the parameters solved from distribution curve fitted by exponential distribution has a least error and can meet the requirement of national standard.