登陆福建的热带气旋对广东降水的影响

Impacts of Fujian-landfalling Tropical Cyclones on the Precipitation in Guangdong

普查1970-2005年登陆福建省的热带气旋（TC）资料可知：（1）36年间平均每年有1.4个TC登陆福建省,其中以强热带风暴及以上级别为主;6-10月都有TC登陆福建省,7-9月尤其8月份是登陆的高峰期;登陆福建的TC具有明显的年际变化。（2）登陆福建省的TC主要集中于3种路径：偏北、偏西、西北型路径,其中偏北、偏西型路径以登陆闽中、闽南为主,而西北型路径有一半登陆闽中,登陆闽北以及闽南的几率相当。（3）偏西型路径的TC登陆后仍以偏西或西南的路径移动,一般有西南季风的配合,80%对广东有显著影响;西北型路径的TC登陆闽北时由于继续以西北或偏北路径移动且在广东上空没有强劲的西南季风的配合,则对广东基本无影响,登陆闽中南的TC登陆后移向偏西或西南,或者有强劲的西南季风的配合对广东造成显著影响的占47.8%,而减弱快同时没有西南季风配合的形势则对广东的影响不显著。

With the Tropical Cyclone （ TCs hereafter） Data during 1970 to 2005, a statistical analysis was performed on the TCs making landfalls in Fujian Province, and some facts were revealed as followed, 1 ） On the average, 1.4 TCs landfall in Fujian, most of which are Severe Tropical Storm or above ; TC may make a landfall in any month from June to October, with a peak during July to September especially in August; TCs landfalling in Fujian show distinct annual variations. 2） Most of the TCs follow three types of the paths to reach Fujian ： northerly, westerly and northwest tracks. First two are related to TCs hitting middle and south Fujian, and among the northwest - track TCs, half landfall in middle Fujian and the rest landfall in south and north Fujian evenly. 3 ） Westerly - track TCs can continue their journey westerly or southwesterly after landfalling with the presence of southwest monsoon, and 80% of them have significant influence on Guangdong province ; in term of northwest - track TCs, those landfalling in north Fujian and moving further northwestward or northward, pose no threat to Guangdong with the absence of strong southwest monsoon, while among those landfalling in middle - south Fujian, 47.8% may have significant influence on Guangdong if they move westerly/southwesterly, or gain the energy from strong southwest monsoon, otherwise, TCs weaken rapidly and have no severe impact on Guangdong.