预测城镇居民境内旅游人数的一种方法

An Approach to Forecast the Tourist Number of Town Dwellers' Domestic Tour

本文通过分析季节性指数平滑法基本原理并采用缪尔-温特斯指数平滑法分析了1994-2005年的城镇居民各个季度的境内旅游人数,得出了这种方法用于预测短期各个季度城镇居民境内旅游人数的条件;并指出这种方法适用于短期预测(3-5年).

Based on the analysis of the fundamental principle of Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Method, the article analyzes the seasonal tourists number of the town dwellers＇ domestic tour from 1994 to 2005 with the Method of Mir-Winters Exponential Smoothing, and makes the conclusion that the Method is competent for forecasting the short-term seasonal tourists number when the conditions are suitable. Simultaneously, the article points out that it is safe to forecast the short-term（within 3 or 5years）seasonal tourists number; otherwise , it will be overestimated.