基于相控阵雷达波束篱笆的空间碎片数量与分布估计方法

A Method for Estimating Space Debris Population and Distribution Based on Phased Array Radar Fence

随着载人航天与空间站等航天活动的增多,不能有效防护、也无法定期跟踪和编目的小尺寸(尤其是1～10cm)碎片的危害越来越受到关注,这些碎片信息的获取依赖于统计采样技术.针对简化的相控阵雷达波束篱笆空间碎片探测模式,提出了一种采用统计技术估计空间碎片总数量以及高度和倾角分布的方法.将碎片穿越波束篱笆的过程用Poisson分布来建模,根据观测时段内穿越波束篱笆目标的平均到达率及测量的轨道高度和倾角数据来估计给定轨道高度范围或倾角范围内碎片的数量,进而得到碎片的总数量以及碎片数量随轨道高度或倾角的分布.在获取雷达散射截面信息时,该方法还可用于估计碎片数量随尺寸的分布.通过仿真实验验证了该方法的有效性.

With more and more space activities such as manned space operations and space station missions, concern with hazards of small-size space debris, especially those of 1-10 cm, is increasing. Limited by sensor sensitivity and data processing capability, they cannot be routinely tracked or cataloged. Therefore, statistical characterization technique is relied on to acquire knowledge on small-size space debris, i.e. to estimate population and distribution of them. Based on a simplified phased array radar fence for space debris detection, a method for estimating space debris population and distribution in altitude and inclination using statistical technique is proposed. The method uses only orbit altitude and inclination data measured and the time of debris crossing the radar fence, and does not depend on a priori information of space debris environment. Because of the relatively sparse distribution of space debris, the problem whether one debris object that may be detected by the radar fence （i.e. inclination and radar cross section are large enough） actually crosses it can be modeled as a Poisson process. For debris objects in a given altitude or inclination bin, the average rate of crossing the radar fence is derived. A companied company with the average crossing rate measured, space debris population in the given altitude bin or inclination bin is obtained. Then the total number of debris objects and their When radar cross section data can be secured, distribution in altitude and inclination are acquired. the method can also be used to estimate space debris population distribution in size. The simulation results show the validity of the proposed method.