基于结构份额与效率份额的中国能源消费强度研究

An Assessment of China's Energy Consumption Intensity based on Structure Share and Efficiency Share Methods

能源短缺已经成为制约我国经济发展的瓶颈，揭示能源消费与经济发展之间的相关机理及变化趋势对于建设节约型社会，实现国民经济的可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。本文将能源消费强度变化分解为结构份额和效率份额，提出了结构份额和效率份额的测算方法，基于1985年～2003年的统计数据测算了我国能源消费强度变化中的结构份额和效率份额，分析了经济结构调整和产业能源使用效率对能源消费强度的影响。结果表明：我国能源消费强度下降是各产业能源使用效率提高和产业结构调整综合作用的结果，相对效率份额，结构份额对能源消费强度的影响波动较大；无论是从效率份额还是结构份额来看，第二产业能源消费强度的下降都是导致整体能源消费强度下降的主要原因，因此，工业能源强度的下降是导致整体能源消费强度下降的主要原因，因此，针对我国产业发展规划，我国能源消费强度研究的主要着眼点应该放在第二产业能源消费强度的下降和能源使用效率的提高两个方面。

Energy shortage has become the bottleneck of economic development in China. It is of great significance for construction of economical society and sustainable development of country＇ s economy to illustrate the mechanism and change trend of energy consumption and economic development. Since 1985, the energy utilization efficiency in China has been greatly increased, but compared with the developed countries, there is still big room to reduce the energy consumption. In this paper, we divide the change of energy consumption intensity into structure share and efficiency share and put forward their formulation, then use the statistical data from 1985 to 2003 to calculate the structure share and efficiency share in the change of energy consumption intensity, analyze the impact of economic structure adjustment and efficiency improvement on it. The result shown that the development of industrial structure and increasing of energy utilization efficiency were two major factors which could promote the decrease of the energy consumption intensity. The cumulative rate of structure share contribution is - 0.08 %, the cumulative rate of efficiency share contribution is 100.08%. Therefore, it is concluded that the efficiency share is the major factor to affect energy consumption intensity and the structure share is playing a negative role in the decrease of energy consumption intensity. Moreover, the impact of efficiency share on energy consumption intensity is consistent, while the impact of structure share on energy consumption seems to be inconsistent because of the impact of the macroeconomic policy at the same time. The ratio of efficiency share of the second industry to the total is the biggest and beyond 80 percent, and first industry and the tertiary industry has the relatively smaller ratio. Also the ratio of structure share of the second industry is the biggest, accounting for 68 percent. So we can conclude that the increase of the energy utilization efficiency in the second industry predominantly led the fall of whole energy consumption intensity. The increase of the energy utilization efficiency in the second industry not only decreases the effect of the other industry to fluctuation of the energy consumption, but also promotes gradually the decrease of the energy consumption intensity. Therefore, the research relating to the energy consumption should focus on decreasing energy intensity in the second industry and improving energy utilization efficiency.