中国耕地需求量的多目标预测与分析

Forecasting and Analyzing the Cultivated Land Demand based on Multi-Objectives in China

耕地资源不仅是粮食生产的重要保证、经济发展的空间储备,同时也是保障农民生活稳定和国家生态安全的物质基础。人多地少是我国的基本国情。随着工业化和城镇化的快速发展,人地矛盾不断加剧,耕地短缺的问题还将进一步凸现。科学预测我国的耕地需求,并制定有效政策保障一定数量耕地,对促进我国社会经济发展非常重要。从耕地保护的政策出发,本文在深入探讨耕地需求量预测原则、方法的基础上,采用多目标的预测方法,对2010年、2020年的中国耕地需求量进行了预测和分析,可为新一轮全国土地利用总体规划编制提供参考依据。

The big population and less cultivated land is the dilemma facing China in the recent decades. Along with the continuous growth of its population, China＇s cultivated land per capita decreased from 0. 106 ha in 1996 to 0.094 ha in 2004, with a decrease rate of 11.3 percent. Per capita cultivated land in China is less than 40 percent of the average in the world, and is the one sixth of that in US approximately. With the growth of population and increased consumption level, the problem of cultivated land shortage will become more serious in the future. To conserve the cultivated land has been the main issue since the first round land use planning （1987 - 2000） made in the country. And how to balance the supply and demand of the cultivated land and forecast the cultivated land changes are the important issues to be considered in the planning. For this purpose, four principles should be adopted to forecast the demand of the cultivated land, that are taking into the facts of economic development and the cultivated land decrease, abiding by national policies, harmonizing the relations between land use and environmental protection, ensuring the demand of construction land and ecological environment protection. Based on these principles, multi-objective approach was adopted to forecast the demand of the cultivated land. The first scenario is based on the cultivated land productivity assessment by Agro-Ecological Zone （AEZ） model and consumption level per capita. The demand of the cultivated land in China would be 1.04×10^8hm^2 and 1.11 ×10^8hm^2 in 2010 and 2020 respectively. The second scenario is based on the different self-sufficiency degree in view of different living standards and the cultivated land yield. The demand of the cultivated land in China would be 1.21× 10^8 hm^2 and 1.17×10%8hm^2 in 2010 and 2020 respectively. The third scenario is based on the analysis of influence factors for the cultivated land change including agriculture structural adjustment, ecological deforest, occupying the cultivated land by construction, natural disaster, land development, land arrangement and land reclamation. The demand of the cultivated land in China would be 1.20×10^8 hm^2 and 1.17 ×l0^8hm^2 in 2010 and 2020 respectively. Through synthesizing different scenarios, the demand of the cultivated land in China in 2010 and 2020 would be 1.20 × 10^8 hm^2 and 1.16 × 10^8 hm^2. This will be the important references to the new round land use planning in China.