2006年世界船舶市场评述及展望

Review of world ship market in 2006 and its prospect

总结了近一年来世界经济的发展,在此大背景下对2006年的船舶行业进行了总结和回顾,并对未来市场进行预测。世界船舶行业在2006年出现一个显著特征,即在航运市场回落的情况下船舶建造市场出现了前所未有的兴旺景象,船舶交易出现价高量大的场面。究其原因,船厂任务已饱满、受新规范影响,成本进一步提高以及对后市航运市场看好等原因起到主要作用。鉴于目前订单情况及航运市场现状,预测未来船价还将保持高位运行,航运市场运力将得到进一步快速扩增,甚至会出现供大于求的局面,不过崩盘的可能性不会太大。

After summarizing the world economy development in the past year, this article makes an overall review of the ship industry in 2006 under this background, as well as the prospect of market in future. There is a significant feature of world ship industry in 2006 that while the shipping market is dropping, the shipbuilding market remains prosperous than ever and before and ship dealing keeps on high price and large quantity. These may be due to the full workload of shipyards, and the implementation of new regulations and positive expectation of future shipping market. With allowance of existing orders and shipping market status, the article forecasts that ship price will remain on high level in future, the shipping capability of shipping market will be further expanded or even the supply may be more than demand; however, the possibility of collapse is quite small.